Scap-load swoon.

We can all now breathe a sigh of relief that we finally know the destination of Gio Gonzalez. That feels good, doesn’t it?

For the past few weeks Gonzalez has been mentioned as one of the top targets-du-jour among the available pitchers throughout the majors. Focusing mainly on his high overall strikeout rate, and being mesmerized by his odd-handedness, GMs and fans have pined for the opportunity to trade anything and everything for the right to slot the Athletic into the No.3 spot in their rotation. (heh)

Well, the Nationals and Mike Rizzo were that team.

On Thursday, Washington and Oakland agreed to a deal that would send minor leaguers Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Derek Norris, and Tommy Milone west in exchange for the left-hander. Jumping at the opportunity to partner Gonzalez with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, Rizzo and the Nats gave up a ton for a very risky pitcher.

And here’s where the argument begins at the Narrative of The Month Club that prospects, are indeed, now very overrated. While true in some aspects (and despite what the narrative may want you to believe) quality prospects are not overrated and flipping your organizations top-2 arms and No.2 (probably lower now with Rendon added to the mix) bat for a pitcher with apparent flaws and very real question marks about future performance outside of Oakland, should leave Nationals fans a little worried about the sacrifice to obtain the player that only recently became so attractive.

The Gonzalez meteoric rise from overrated to underrated seemingly happened overnight. (h/t @devilfingers) After being traded three times (how astonishing is that for an “ace” or even a left-hander?) before he stuck in the Oakland rotation two years ago, he was a ticking time-bomb set to either explode because of his walk rate, or implode because of his lack of mound composure. His 2010 and 2011 seasons statistically have been better, but not when you factor in the major difference in his home and road performance.

Looking at just last season alone, Gonzalez home/road xFIP was nearly the same with just 48-hundreths separating the two (3.99 road versus 3.51 home), but the real difference in performance is seen in the numbers that GMs and arbitrators trade and negotiate on, ERA.

Gonzalez in 2011 was a near full run better at home than on the road, and from what we know now about home parks like The Coliseum (of whatever it’s called now) and Petco and others, is that overall ERA marks need to be taken with a discerning eye when talking about pitchers that throw half or more of their innings there. Never is this more apparent than when you look at Gonzalez’s staggering difference in BABIP against  (.280 vs. .294) and LOB% (80.6% vs. 73.5%) between his home and road starts.

None of this is to say, of course, that Gonzalez can’t be on the ascent to staff ace or upper tier pitcher that would constitute trading at least three top prospects for him, but taking on the burden of a high walk pitcher with such an unpredictable future projection is pretty daring.

In his short time as GM of the Nationals Rizzo has shown he’s willing to be daring (the Jayson Werth deal being exhibit A) in free agency, but the difference here is he’s trading pieces from a farm system that will end up being inexpensive parts providing value in the major leagues while Gonzalez is either no longer with the team, or being simply an average pitcher away from The Coliseum.

Gonzalez does make the Nationals a better team today. That much goes without saying. And possibly from their perspective, with the money they have available to them being in the DC market, the cost of losing prospects won’t hurt them as much because they can just replace the lost production in free agency later. However, hopping into the middle of a bidding war for a pitcher who slots in as just a No.3 starter when there are so many more pressing areas of need on the roster (Centerfield? First base?) is a head scratcher.

Gonzalez is a good pitcher, not a great pitcher, and probably not worth the haul the Nationals gave up to get him.

*this rant also appears on Bullpen Banter at www.bullpenbanter.com